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Abstract Haystack and Owens Valley Radio Observatory observations recently revealed strong, intermittent, sinusoidal total flux-density variations that maintained their coherence between 1975 and 2021 in the blazar PKS 2131−021 (z= 1.283). This was interpreted as possible evidence of a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB). Extended observations through 2023 show a coherence over 47.9 yr, with an observed periodP_{15 GHz}= (1739.8 ± 17.4) days. We reject, withp-value = 2.09 × 10⁻⁷, the hypothesis that the variations are due to random fluctuations in the red noise tail of the power spectral density. There is clearly a physical phenomenon in PKS 2131−021 producing coherent sinusoidal flux-density variations. We find the coherent sinusoidal intensity variations extend from below 2.7 GHz to optical frequencies, from which we derive an observed periodP_optical= (1764 ± 36) days. Across this broad frequency range, there is a smoothly varying monotonic phase shift in the sinusoidal variations with frequency. Hints of periodic variations are also observed atγ-ray energies. The importance of well-vetted SMBHB candidates to searches for gravitational waves is pointed out. We estimate the fraction of blazars that are SMBHB candidates to be >1 in 100. Thus, monitoring programs covering tens of thousands of blazars could discover hundreds of SMBHB candidates. 

ABSTRACT The International Pulsar Timing Array 2nd data release is the combination of data sets from worldwide collaborations. In this study, we search for continuous waves: gravitational wave signals produced by individual supermassive black hole binaries in the local universe. We consider binaries on circular orbits and neglect the evolution of orbital frequency over the observational span. We find no evidence for such signals and set sky averaged 95 per cent upper limits on their amplitude h95. The most sensitive frequency is 10 nHz with h95 = 9.1 × 10−15. We achieved the best upper limit to date at low and high frequencies of the PTA band thanks to improved effective cadence of observations. In our analysis, we have taken into account the recently discovered common red noise process, which has an impact at low frequencies. We also find that the peculiar noise features present in some pulsars data must be taken into account to reduce the false alarm. We show that using custom noise models is essential in searching for continuous gravitational wave signals and setting the upper limit. 

Abstract The Australian, Chinese, European, Indian, and North American pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations recently reported, at varying levels, evidence for the presence of a nanohertz gravitational-wave background (GWB). Given that each PTA made different choices in modeling their data, we perform a comparison of the GWB and individual pulsar noise parameters across the results reported from the PTAs that constitute the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA). We show that despite making different modeling choices, there is no significant difference in the GWB parameters that are measured by the different PTAs, agreeing within 1σ. The pulsar noise parameters are also consistent between different PTAs for the majority of the pulsars included in these analyses. We bridge the differences in modeling choices by adopting a standardized noise model for all pulsars and PTAs, finding that under this model there is a reduction in the tension in the pulsar noise parameters. As part of this reanalysis, we “extended” each PTA’s data set by adding extra pulsars that were not timed by that PTA. Under these extensions, we find better constraints on the GWB amplitude and a higher signal-to-noise ratio for the Hellings–Downs correlations. These extensions serve as a prelude to the benefits offered by a full combination of data across all pulsars in the IPTA, i.e., the IPTA’s Data Release 3, which will involve not just adding in additional pulsars but also including data from all three PTAs where any given pulsar is timed by more than a single PTA. 

ABSTRACT We searched for an isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background in the second data release of the International Pulsar Timing Array, a global collaboration synthesizing decadal-length pulsar-timing campaigns in North America, Europe, and Australia. In our reference search for a power-law strain spectrum of the form $$h_c = A(f/1\, \mathrm{yr}^{-1})^{\alpha }$$, we found strong evidence for a spectrally similar low-frequency stochastic process of amplitude $$A = 3.8^{+6.3}_{-2.5}\times 10^{-15}$$ and spectral index α = −0.5 ± 0.5, where the uncertainties represent 95 per cent credible regions, using information from the auto- and cross-correlation terms between the pulsars in the array. For a spectral index of α = −2/3, as expected from a population of inspiralling supermassive black hole binaries, the recovered amplitude is $$A = 2.8^{+1.2}_{-0.8}\times 10^{-15}$$. None the less, no significant evidence of the Hellings–Downs correlations that would indicate a gravitational-wave origin was found. We also analysed the constituent data from the individual pulsar timing arrays in a consistent way, and clearly demonstrate that the combined international data set is more sensitive. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this combined data set produces comparable constraints to recent single-array data sets which have more data than the constituent parts of the combination. Future international data releases will deliver increased sensitivity to gravitational wave radiation, and significantly increase the detection probability.